Application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian great lakes region: Implementation of a lake model     

Stéphane Goyette  N.A. McFarlane  Gregory M. Flato 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):481-503

Abstract

This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations.  相似文献   

Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax     

Julie Rozenberg  Stéphane Hallegatte  Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert  Jean-Charles Hourcade 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):134-141

Introducing a carbon tax is difficult, partly because it suggests that current generations have to make sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. However, the climate change externality could be corrected without such a sacrifice. It is possible to set a carbon value, and use it to create ‘carbon certificates’ that can be accepted as part of commercial banks’ legal reserves. These certificates can be distributed to low-carbon projects, and be exchanged by investors against concessional loans, reducing capital costs for low-carbon projects. As the issuance of carbon certificates would increase the quantity of money, it will either lead to accelerated inflation or induce the Central Bank to raise interest rates. Low-carbon projects will thus have access to cheaper loans at the expense of either ‘regular’ investors (in case of higher interest rates) or of lenders and depositors (in case of accelerated inflation). Within this scheme, mitigation expenditures are compensated by a reduction in regular investments, so that immediate consumption is maintained. It uses future generation wealth to pay for a hedge against climate change. This framework is not as efficient as a carbon tax but is politically easier to implement and represents an interesting step in the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy.  相似文献   

THE FREE-WILSON PARADIGM REDUX:SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FREE-WILSON COEFFICIENTS,INSIGNIFICANCE OF COEFFICIENT ‘UNCERTAINTIES’ AND STATISTICAL SINS     

DAVID LEE DUEWER 《地理学报(英文版)》1990,(4)

The Free-Wilson paradigm is an established and powerful tool for quantitatively relating activity withchemical structure.Current implementations of the paradigm,however,are flawed both conceptually andin execution.As part of an attempt to more fully realize the promise of the paradigm,it was necessaryto examine these limitations in detail.This report introduces a robust,theory-founded Free-Wilson implementation:stepwise principalcomponents regression analysis(SPCRA).SPCRA is computationally superior to previousimplementations but does not in itself correct their conceptual flaws.The development of SPCRA did,however,facilitate derivation of a simple and chemically significantinterpretation of the Free-Wilson structure-activity model.A number of statistical aspects of this modelcommonly misused in previous applications are discussed at length.These discussions provide criticalbackground for the development of an alternative implementation of the Free-Wilson paradigm.  相似文献   

The secondary spectral component of solar microwave bursts     

M. Stähli  D. E. Gary  G. J. Hurford 《Solar physics》1990,125(2):343-357

Microwave observations in the range 1 to 18 GHz with high spectral resolution (40 frequencies) have shown that many events display a complex microwave spectrum. From a set of 14 events with two or more spectral components, we find that two different classes of complex events can be distinguished. The first group (4 events) is characterized by a different temporal evolution of the spectral components, resulting in a change of the spectral shape. These events probably can be explained by gyrosynchrotron emission from two or more individual sources. The second class (10 events) has a constant spectral shape, so that the two spectral components vary together in intensity. For all ten events in this second class, the ratio of primary to secondary peak frequencies is remarkably similar, exhibiting an average value of 3.4, and both components show a common circular polarization. These properties suggest either a common source for the different spectral components or several sources which are closely coupled. An additional example of this class of burst was observed interferometrically to provide spatial resolution. This event suggests that the primary and secondary components have a similar location, but that the surface area of the secondary component is larger.Swiss National Science Foundation Fellow from the University of Bern.  相似文献   

Yaxcopoil-1 and the Chicxulub impact     

Wolfgang?StinnesbeckEmail author  Gerta?Keller  Thierry?Adatte  Markus?Harting  Doris?Stüben  Georg?Istrate  Utz?Kramar 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(6):1042-1065

CSDP core Yaxcopoil-1 was drilled to a depth of 1,511 m within the Chicxulub crater. An organic-rich marly limestone near the base of the hole (1,495 to 1,452 m) was deposited in an open marine shelf environment during the latest Cenomanian (uppermost Rotalipora cushmani zone). The overlying sequence of limestones, dolomites and anhydrites (1,495 to 894 m) indicates deposition in various carbonate platform environments (e.g., sabkhas, lagoons). A 100-m-thick suevite breccia (894–794 m) identifies the Chicxulub impact event. Above the suevite breccia is a dolomitic limestone with planktic foraminiferal assemblages indicative of Plummerita hantkeninoides zone CF1, which spans the last 300 ky of the Maastrichtian. An erosional surface 50 cm above the breccia/dolomite contact marks the K/T boundary and a hiatus. Limestones above this contact contain the first Tertiary planktic foraminifera indicative of an upper P. eugubina zone P1a(2) age. Another hiatus 7 cm upsection separates zone P1a(2) and hemipelagic limestones of planktic foraminiferal Zone P1c. Planktic foraminiferal assemblages of Zone Plc to P3b age are present from a depth of 794.04 up to 775 m. The Cretaceous carbonate sequence appears to be autochthonous, with a stratigraphic sequence comparable to late Cretaceous sediments known from outside the Chicxulub crater in northern and southern Yucatan, including the late Cenomanian organic-rich marly limestone. There is no evidence that these sediments represent crater infill due to megablocks sliding into the crater, such as major disruption of sediments, chaotic changes in lithology, overturned or deep dipping megablocks, major mechanical fragmentation, shock or thermal alteration, or ductile deformation. Breccia units that are intercalated in the carbonate platform sequence are intraformational in origin (e.g., dissolution of evaporites) and dykes are rare. Major disturbances of strata by the impact therefore appear to have been confined to within less than 60 km from the proposed impact center. Yaxcopoil-1 may be located outside the collapsed transient crater cavity, either on the upper end of an elevated and tilted horst of the terrace zone, or even outside the annular crater cavity. The Chicxulub site thus records a large impact that predates the K/T boundary impact and mass extinction.  相似文献   

Preparing for climate change in Washington State     

Lara C. Whitely Binder  Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos  Derek B. Booth  Meriel Darzen  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard Fenske  Thomas F. Graham  Alan F. Hamlet  John Hodges-Howell  J. Elizabeth Jackson  Catherine Karr  Patrick W. Keys  Jeremy S. Littell  Nathan Mantua  Jennifer Marlow  Don McKenzie  Michael Robinson-Dorn  Eric A. Rosenberg  Claudio O. Stöckle  Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa     

Emilie Vanvyve  Nicholas Hall  Christophe Messager  Stéphanie Leroux  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(2-3):191-202

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.  相似文献   

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23     

César A. Zen Vasconcellos  Dimiter Hadjimichef  Magno Machado  Benno Bodmann  Marcelo Netz-Marzola  Geovane Naysinger  Mariana Vargas Magaña  Peter O. Hess  Horst Stöcker  Steven Gullberg  Remo Ruffini 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2024,345(2-3):e240029

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.  相似文献   

New brown dwarf candidates in the Pleiades     

T. Eisenbeiss  M. Moualla  M. Mugrauer  T.O.B. Schmidt  St. Raetz  R. Neuhuser  Ch. Ginski  M.M. Hohle  A. Koeltzsch  C. Marka  W. Rammo  A. Reithe  T. Roell  M. Va&#x;ko 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2009,330(5):439-458

We have performed deep, wide‐field imaging on a ∼0.4 deg² field in the Pleiades (Melotte 22). The selected field was not yet target of a deep search for low mass stars and brown dwarfs. Our limiting magnitudes are R ∼ 22 mag and I ∼ 20 mag, sufficient to detect brown dwarf candidates down to 40 M_J. We found 197 objects, whose location in the (I, R – I) color magnitude diagram is consistent with the age and the distance of the Pleiades. Using CTK R and I as well as JHK photometry from our data and the 2MASS survey we were able to identify 7 new brown dwarf candidates. We present our data reduction technique, which enables us to resample, calibrate, and co‐add many images by just two steps. We estimate the interstellar extinction and the spectral type from our optical and the NIR data using a two‐dimensional χ² fitting (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Planetary transit observations at the University Observatory Jena: XO‐1b and TrES‐1     

St. Raetz  M. Mugrauer  T.O.B. Schmidt  T. Roell  T. Eisenbeiss  M.M. Hohle  N. Tetzlaff  M. Va&#x;ko  A. Seifahrt  Ch. Broeg  J. Koppenhoefer  R. Neuhuser 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2009,330(5):475-481

We report on observations of transit events of the transiting planets XO‐1b and TrES‐1 with a 25 cm telescope of the University Observatory Jena. With the transit timings for XO‐1b from all 50 available XO, SuperWASP, Transit Light Curve (TLC)‐Project‐ and Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)‐data, including our own I ‐band photometry obtained in March 2007, we find that the orbital period is P = (3.941501 ± 0.000001) d, a slight change by ∼3 s compared to the previously published period. We present new ephemeris for this transiting planet. Furthermore, we present new R ‐band photometry of two transits of TrES‐1. With the help of all available transit times from literature this allows us to refine the estimate of the orbital period: P = (3.0300722 ± 0.0000002) d. Our observations will be useful for future investigations of timing variations caused by additional perturbing planets and/or stellar spots and/or moons (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献